New Release
The Decision Factory:
A Novel About Decisions Under Uncertainty
What happens when a logistics company's optimization model breaks in the real world? Follow Fulcrum Logistics as they tear down their brittle system and build something that actually works when things go wrong.
The Story
Fulcrum Logistics had everything figured out — until they didn't. Their optimization model looked brilliant on paper but crumbled the moment reality threw a curveball. This is the story of how they ripped out the old system, stopped pretending they could predict the future, and built a decision factory — a system designed to make good decisions despite uncertainty, not in spite of it.
What You'll Learn
Wrapped in narrative, loaded with real techniques. Every chapter teaches a concept through the story.
Adaptive Optimization
Transform brittle optimization models into adaptive policies that flex with changing conditions.
Simulation as a Lab
Build simulators as laboratories for decision-making — test strategies before they hit the real world.
Monte Carlo Methods
Use Monte Carlo techniques to reason about uncertainty instead of running from it.
Surface Tradeoffs
Stop hiding tradeoffs in your objective function. Learn to surface them for decision-makers.
Robust Deployment
Deploy systems that work when things go wrong — because things always go wrong.
Foreword by
Warren Powell
Professor Emeritus, Princeton University
Warren Powell — one of the most influential figures in sequential decision analytics and the author of foundational work on approximate dynamic programming and reinforcement learning for operations research — wrote the foreword for The Decision Factory. His endorsement reflects the book's commitment to practical, rigorous decision-making frameworks that bridge the gap between academia and industry.
What People Are Saying
“This book should be the final nail in the coffin against academia's tendency to overcomplicate decision-making under uncertainty.”
Warren Powell
Professor Emeritus, Princeton University
From Book to Platform
Decision Arena
Static Answers Break. Strong Policies Win.
The Decision Arena is a competitive simulation platform born directly from the ideas in this book. Students design policies, test decisions under uncertainty, and compete on a leaderboard — not on who memorized the formula, but on whose decisions actually perform across the distribution of outcomes.
Think less "classroom exercise," more "live decision laboratory." A university pilot is currently in progress.
Design Policies, Not One-Off Answers
Build decision rules that run across many scenarios. A policy that thrives under volatility beats an answer that works once.
Simulate Before You Ship
Policies get tested against stochastic demand, supply disruptions, and cost shocks. Discover whether your thinking holds up.
Compete on a Leaderboard
Performance ranked across the distribution of outcomes — not on who memorized the formula.
Decisions Break.
Build Systems That Don't.
A novel for practitioners, engineers, and decision-makers who are tired of models that only work on slides. Read the story. Learn the techniques. Build the factory.